FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MAIN FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A FORECAST
J. Havel
Summary
The forecast of the development of the factors that
exert their influence on agricultural production suggests no large differences
between the developing countries. The area of irrigated land, the numbers of
tractors and the numbers of economically active population are expected to increase
in all the developing countries surveyed. The expected levels of the increase
in production vary in the different countries. The increase in the output of
crop production and livestock production is expected to range from 6 to 26 %,
depending on the countries and on the relationships used for the estimation.
The rate of growth appears to be greater in livestock production: this corresponds
to the technological possibilities of this branch of farming. However, livestock
farms in developing countries can hardly be expected to find sufficient local
sources that would meet the increased demand for feeds for the increased livestock
populaltions. Hence, crop production forecasts must be regarded as data of critical
importance. Distribution of other factors should be modified with respect to
the crop production data.
Key words:
factor, forecast, area, crop, proportion, trend, consumption,
increase